There is a discussion going on in the European media about lifting the sanctions imposed on Russia in July 2014, but how realistic is this? Experts do not think that it will happen soon, but they start thinking about the after-effects that could be produced on Russia both economically and politically.

There are lot of discussions going on with differing opinions and here are some of them:

Some experts think it will have a negative impact on the country:

• It will be easier for Russian businesses to take out cheaper loans abroad. This may lead to an increase in the supply of foreign currency and a fall in the exchange rate.
• The flow of cheaper foreign products will start all over again minimizing the protection measures taken by Russia.
• Countermeasures taken through the imposition of sanctions will also disappear, but they have already had many economic and political consequences.

Some people think the opposite:

• Capital inflow will not shock the Russian economy.
• Sanctions have reduced incentives and financial opportunities for the allocation of capital in foreign markets. So, they balance the cash inflow and outflow and this reduces the impact on the balance of payments and the currency exchange rate.
• Agriculture will not suffer considerably because consumer behaviour and preferences have changed during the entire period. Russian consumers have adapted to local food products (meat, poultry, vegetables) so this will have a long-term effect on the Russian food market. However, Russians would be happy to welcome back authentic specialty products like Spanish jamon and French camembert.

Probably the sanctions will not be lifted in the nearest future, but the discussion about them is a good reason to think about what Russia expects from its trade partners and the sanction policy.

In 2018, Higher School of Economics (https://www.hse.ru/) conducted a survey on how Russian small- and medium-sized companies adapted to the sanction policy and what measures they took to reduce their impact. See more info in the table attached to the document.